When your gut and your numbers disagree — which should you trust?
Your gut built your business. It helped you win your first clients, hire the right people, and make the big calls when the data was thin and the stakes were high.
But as your business grows, the same instinct that once felt razor-sharp can start to misfire. Suddenly, the numbers tell a different story — and you’re left wondering which to believe.
The Founder’s Dilemma
In the early years, you are the business. Every decision runs through you, and your instinct is shaped by daily contact with clients, staff, and cashflow. That’s why it works — you’re close enough to feel the pulse.
As the team grows, layers appear. Information travels more slowly, and instinct loses its edge. You still have good intuition — it’s just working with partial signals.
When Gut Feel Starts to Drift
I often see this with founder-led SMEs. They “feel” the business is performing well — until the numbers reveal something different:
Revenue’s up but margins are falling.
The pipeline looks strong, but cash is getting tighter.
The team’s busier than ever, yet profitability hasn’t moved.
Gut feel isn’t wrong — it’s just missing context. And without clarity, even the best founders end up reacting instead of leading.
When Numbers Fail to Earn Trust
Of course, many founders have the opposite problem. The data they get isn’t good enough to trust:
Reports arrive too late to be useful.
Figures shift from one version to the next.
The accountant’s view doesn’t match what they see on the ground.
No wonder instinct wins — it’s faster, simpler, and usually right enough. But “enough” eventually stops being good enough when the business reaches £1m–£10m turnover.
The Sweet Spot: Data that Sharpens Instinct
The goal isn’t to replace gut feel — it’s to refine it. When a founder’s intuition is supported by accurate, timely management information, decisions get sharper and risk falls.
That looks like:
Clear visibility of sales, margins, and cash — updated monthly.
A meaningful set of KPIs that reflect performance, not activity.
Conversations about why things are changing, not just what changed.
The best finance function doesn’t drown you in numbers; it turns data into clarity. And clarity makes instinct powerful again.
A Practical First Step
If you find yourself second-guessing the numbers — or your gut — it’s time to reset your information flow. Start simple: one page of key figures, reviewed monthly with someone who knows how to translate numbers into meaning.
Over time, you’ll find that your instinct comes back — not as guesswork, but as informed confidence.
At Out of the Ordinary, I help founder-led SMEs rebuild clarity — combining financial insight with the founder’s instinct to drive confident, sustainable growth. If you’d like to make clearer, faster decisions with numbers you can actually trust, message me on LinkedIn or email andy@outoftheordinary.uk to explore how I could help you do just that.